Nine-term Congresswoman Jane Harman of Los Angeles is calling it quits to take the helm of the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, a non-partisan Washington D.C. think tank. Although Harman has just announced her imminent retirement two candidates have already announced their interest including LA City Councilwoman Janice Hahn and California Secretary of State Debra Bowen who represented roughly the same area as a member of the State Assembly and State Senate until her election to statewide office in 2006.
Under state law, once Harman vacates her seat, the Governor must call a Special Election within 14 days to be held 112 to 126 days after that. The time line could be extended a bit further if the Special Election can be consolidated with another election already scheduled. That could include a statewide Special Election to be held June 7, 2011 that Governor Jerry Brown is already likely to call in support of extending several state taxes.
Candidates for the seat must either win an outright majority or face a runoff of the top two candidates regardless of party affiliation. So does the early retirement of a Los Angeles-based member of Congress matter to voters in San Mateo County? Maybe. If the well-known and popular Bowen is successful in her congressional bid, there will be a vacancy in the office of the Secretary of State that Governor Jerry Brown can fill by appointment.
It’s no secret that local Congresswoman Jackie Speier is not necessarily enamored by serving in the U.S. Congress as evidenced by her contemplation of a run for Attorney General of California last January. In addition, Speier lost a bid for Lt. Governor in 2006 to now Congressman John Garamendi.
A vacant statewide office may be attractive to Speier who, with some heavyweight lobbying by well-connected friends, could be appointed to the seat and run as an incumbent in two years. Such a coup would put Speier in the mix of potent state officeholders in position to succeed Governor Jerry Brown who is widely rumored to likely forgo a second term in office or be in position for an U.S. Senate seat should current Senators Feinstein or Boxer retire.
While such scenarios are simply speculation, the potential for a political domino effect could be massive, freeing up Congressional and legislative seats and likely local offices below that. This next year could be a wild one.
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